4 New Battleground State Polls Test DEM Candidates
Between July 17-20, Clean and Prosperous America PAC commissioned four surveys of registered voters in Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. Full methodology is listed at the end of this memo; full toplines and crosstabs are attached in alphabetical order by state.
Key Poll Findings:
- Democratic candidates for Senate or Governor lead all four states outside the survey’s margin of error. In AZ, Gallego leads Lake 49-42%. In PA, Casey leads McCormick 50-39%. In MI, Slotkin leads Rogers 46-38%. In North Carolina, where there is an open race for Governor, Stein leads Robinson 48-42%.
- Former President Trump holds a lead over President Biden and Vice President Harris in all four states. Although Trump’s net favorability ratings are less negative than Biden’s, Trump remains stuck in the mid 40s in the opening multi-candidate ballot tests.
- However, after positive and negative messages, a Presidential ticket led by Kamala Harris with the state’s Governor is locked in a close race: Up 2 in MI, tied in PA, and down two in NC, all within the margin of error. The ticket of Harris + the Governor improves over Biden’s margin by 3 points in MI, 4 points in NC, and 4 points in PA.
- In Arizona, Trump has a consistent 5-7 point lead in all the Presidential ballot tests, except against Mark Kelly who trails by 2.
Survey Methodology:
Detailed methodology is available on the Public Policy Polling website.
On July 19-20, Public Policy Polling surveyed 736 Arizona registered voters and 573 North Carolina registered voters on behalf of Clean and Prosperous America PAC. In Arizona, the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.6% and 68% of interviews were conducted by text message and 32% by telephone. In North Carolina, the survey’s margin of error is +/-4.1% and 59% of interviews were conducted by text message and 41% by telephone.
On July 17-18, Public Policy Polling surveyed 650 Michigan registered voters & 624 Pennsylvania registered voters on behalf of Clean and Prosperous America PAC. In Michigan, the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.9% and 60% of interviews were conducted by text message and 40% by telephone. In Pennsylvania, the survey’s margin of error is +/-3.8% and 61% of interviews were conducted by text message and 39% by telephone.